TAIWAN – WHERE TO FROM HERE ?
After taking our theme through 5 roughly chronological parts, we felt as though there was more to be said – and more to be offered. If we really believed in an alternative to Xi Jinping’s ‘reunification invasion’, we should explore it.
Before we get into that, we thought you’d be interested in the fact that the US has itself expressed the same beliefs as we have about the legitimacy of Xi’s claims. On 12th November 2020, Mike Pompeo, the former US Secretary of State, was interviewed by Hugh Hewitt. At the time, his boss Donald Trump was all about China and sanctions against it – such as against Huawei.
When asked about US commitments to Taiwan, Pompeo said “Taiwan has not been a part of China. And that was recognized with the work that the Reagan administration did to lay out the policy that the United States has adhered to now for three and a half decades and done so under both administrations.” So the US doesn’t even believe China has any sovereign rights over Taiwan. The next day, China reacted strongly to Pompeo’s statements with Foreign Minister Wang Wenbin saying he had “further damaged Sino-US ties”. He also went on to say "We solemnly tell Pompeo and his ilk, that any behavior that undermines China’s core interests ... will be met with a resolute counterattack by China." Pompeo's comment further distanced his administration from China's claim on Taiwan, which it styles the "One China policy."
Needless to say, Taiwan’s Foreign Ministry was very pleased with Pompeo’s comments and the US’ support.
The PRC and Xi Jinping have been relying heavily on the fact that they became the true representatives of China in the UN by way of Resolution 2758 being passed on 25th October 1971. They would have us all believe that as the one true China, they rule over Taiwan. This is not true. In fact, the resolution refers only to “the PRC as the only legitimate representative of China to the United Nations and to expel forthwith the representatives of Chiang Kai-shek from the place which they unlawfully occupy at the United Nations….”.
As we mentioned previously, Chiang Kai-shek at the time of fleeing to Taiwan around 1945-49, believed that one day they (the KMT) would again rule over mainland China but later gave up this notion but remained in the UN until 1971. So the PRC’s replacement of the ROC was legitimate as the sole ruler of China, It does NOT however grant or acknowledge any sovereignty over Taiwan!
Taiwan could therefore legitimately re-apply for UN membership as an independent and sovereign nation. In fact, the US endeavoured to have the UN provide for just such an event at the time of resolution 2758 but that was rejected. Now, 50 years later, the situation has clarified somewhat and Taiwan’s membership should be reconsidered.
China (PRC) however would strongly reject such a move and no doubt base its reasoning on Taiwan having been a province of China – which it never was. The US and allies could lead the charge with a proposed resolution to reinstate Taiwan as a sovereign nation.
If that were to happen, then Xi Jinping, the CCP and the PRC would have a major problem! And the only way around it would be for China to again ignore an international ruling. That ruling happens to be UN Charter, San Francisco 1945 article 2(4) which says:
“4. All Members shall refrain in their international relations from the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of any state, or in any other manner inconsistent with the Purposes of the United Nations.”
So it would be in everyone’s interest to admit Taiwan to the UN regardless of whether China acknowledges or rejects such membership. If China proceeded aggressively towards Taiwan, then it would be against the UN Charter. Would China risk ejection from the UN? Would it care? Or would it just treat it the same way as it treated The Hague’s ruling against China’s South China Seas territorial claims? As we know, China (ie. Xi Jinping) ignored that ruling and took over 3 of the SpratlyIslands and developed them as military outposts of the PRC. China’s territorial claims are outlined by the “none-dash line” but the international ruling refutes the claim which makes China’s presumptuous actions illegal. The law that is breached is the UN’s Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS).
As we reported previously, Xi Jinping wants to resolve his One China, Two Systems claims before the 100th anniversary of Mao Zedong’s declaration of the PRC on 1st October 1949. This gives him 27 years. It also gives the rest of us 27 years to convince him otherwise and once and for all declare Taiwan’s sovereignty. Having done that, the West and the UN can then ensure that China’s threats become only empty ones when it comes to any claims over Taiwan.
Xi Jinping just turned 69 in June 2022 so it is unlikely that at 96 he will see his ‘China Dream’ realised in 2049.
The next couple of years could be telling if firstly, Taiwan can be reinstated to the UN in their own right and secondly, when Sweden and Finland become members of NATO!
The world will surely be a far different place!
GB / AB